On a Scale of 1-to-5, Please Say Something Outlandish

For a nation that doesn’t typically include “survey design” and “statistical analysis” in our education curriculum, we sure are a survey-happy society.

News organizations, in particular, delight in spreading findings on how many people feel this way or that.

But I worry that we’ve become too aware of opinion research and its use in popular culture, and that opinion researchers are exploiting it.

For instance, a new survey from Newsweek finds that 14% of Republican s (+/- 6.8) believe that it’s “Definitely True” that President Obama sympathizes with “Islamic fundamentalists who want to impose Islamic law around the world.”

Another 38% of Republicans say that it is “Probably True.”

Specifically, the question read:

• “Some people have alleged that Barack Obama sympathizes with the goals of Islamic fundamentalists who want to impose Islamic law around the world. From what you know about Obama, what is your opinion of these allegations?”

Clearly, these are highly, highly partisan times, and some Americans disagree vehemently with President Obama’s political philosophy.

But to truly believe he is sympathetic about instituting Islamic Law in the U.S.?

I’m skeptical.

First, I suspect we’re seeing a halo effect in which a person’s overall dislike of something influences every question about that subject. And on highly emotional and controversial topics, this phenomenon is even stronger.

I imagine that the numbers would have been similar if Newsweek had asked Republicans:

• Does President Obama have tentacles?
• Did President Obama turn tail at the Alamo?
• Is President Obama the “man in black” from Lost?

Further, I suspect that people are becoming too media savvy to always be candid on opinion surveys.

With the ubiquity of survey results appearing in the news, I believe that more people understand the connection between survey results and the news cycle, and how surveys can come to frame debates and influence popular opinion.

So I can’t help but wonder how many Republicans heard this question and thought: “Hey, if enough Republicans state belief in this idea, maybe it will get on the news and will help further my personal political goals.”

Twenty years ago, I never would have espoused such a belief.

But in our media savvy culture and highly partisan times, I think it’s a factor at play in political opinion research.

And I also wonder how much opinion researchers know this and exploit it.

So my question for Newsweek is this- did your interviewers follow-up on this question?

Did they probe for the sincerity of this belief and attempt to discover if respondents were expressing general resentment of the president, or even attempting to game the system?

A Rebirth of Push Polling?

Push polling is a scurrilous practice in which partisans posing as opinion researchers ask highly skewed questions, such as, “Can you vote for Candidate XYZ even knowing that he’s committed to enslaving our children?” in order to influence public opinion.

They are easy to identify, and typically have no currency in serious thought.

But I’m worried that there’s a new breed of push polling in which news organizations ask intentionally ambiguous and volatile questions in order to generate sensational headlines.

So what’s the goal of the research…to generate valid opinion data, or to sell more magazines?

I hope the answer is the former, and that we aren’t simply baiting people with strong opinions to make outlandish statements in order to generate a buzz.  

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Postscript: I’ve noticed that a few on the left have slightly misinterpreted the wording of the question and used some hyperbole in reporting on this survey.

For instance, Eric Kleefeld of TalkingPointsMemo.com described the results this way: “…a majority of Republicans suspect that President Obama wants to impose Islamic law, also known as Sharia, throughout the world…”

Just for clarification, that’s not actually what the question asks, as “sympathizes with” is different from “wants to impose.”

So it’s possible for a respondent to believe that the president sympathizes with fundamentalists, but doesn’t actually want to impose Islamic Law.

I’m nitpicking, but when things are already this sensational, maybe we should nitpick more.